We are over two-thirds through the 2025 NRL season, with just six rounds remaining as the race for finals spots heats up.
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Entering Round 22 this week, only six points separate the sixth-placed Broncos (26pts) and 14th-placed Eels (18pts).
The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership which, for now, appears to be a race between four.
Look away if you are a Knights, Titans or Rabbitohs fan, as according to the Lab, your season is done, although you probably knew that already.
Raiders, Bulldogs and Storm fans can already rejoice, with your teams rated a 100% chance of making the eight, with the Warriors also virtually guaranteed to be playing finals.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (36 points, +158)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 99.6%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 46.3%
Remaining games: Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)
Analysis: The Raiders’ 44-18 win over the Knights has only strengthened Canberra’s chances of taking out the minor premiership. And with clashes against the struggling Dragons and Sea Eagles before their final bye, they will prove very hard for the Storm and Bulldogs to run down. Ricky Stuart faces a challenge between going after a long-awaited first minor premiership in 35 years and resting some of his stars to ensure they are ready to make a tilt at a drought-breaking first title since 1994. But with six games to go and a soft draw, the Raiders look certainties for a top two finish and two chances at home finals at GIO Stadium.
Crawley says Walsh needs to ‘grow up’ | 03:38
2. CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (34 points, +136)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 97.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 27.7%
Remaining games: Tigers (A), Warriors (H), Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)
Analysis: The Bulldogs produced one of their best wins of the year in a 42-4 victory over Manly, which saw their attack click with Lachlan Galvin at halfback. The Bulldogs have one of the best defences in the competition and if they can continue to ignite their attack like they did against Manly, they are genuine threats for the title. Galvin is 2-0 as an NRL halfback, but bigger battles await. The Bulldogs will fancy their chances against his old club the Tigers and the Warriors in the next fortnight, but a tough run home could make it tough to crack the top two and get a home final in week one.
3. MELBOURNE STORM (32 points, +222)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 96.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 25.0%
Remaining games: Eels (A), Broncos (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)
Analysis: The Storm bounced back from their loss to Manly with a brave 34-30 win over the Roosters, but it came at a cost with Jahrome Hughes out until the finals with a shoulder injury. The Storm have a superior points differential, but are now four points behind the Raiders and two points behind the Bulldogs for a top two finish. Next up the Storm face their bogey side the Eels away and will want to win before a tough run home that sees them play the Broncos twice, the Bulldogs and Panthers. With no more byes, Craig Bellamy will have to juggle his stars if he wants to give them a freshen up before the finals, which could make it even more difficult for them to run down the Raiders and Bulldogs for a top two finish. However, this team is trying to avenge last year’s Grand Final loss and at this stage with the class in their team, they are still the favourites to go all the way in 2025.
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Cronk reveals how Moses elevates Eels | 02:56
4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (30 points, +28)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 63.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.8%
Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: The Warriors missed a golden chance to cement a top four spot in a disappointing 24-16 loss to the Titans. The Warriors began life without Luke Metcalf with back-to-back wins over the Tigers and Knights after he was rubbed out for the season with an ACL injury, but the Titans loss has raised doubts about their title credentials. Tanah Boyd has been solid after being given first crack at replacing Metcalf, but it remains to be seen if he can mix it with the elite playmakers in the NRL come finals time. The Warriors face a huge test against the Dolphins this week, but a soft run home should ensure they squeak into the top four. However, there are doubts they have the quality in the halves to go all the way for a maiden title.
5. PENRITH PANTHERS (27 points, +79)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 95.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 23.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%
Remaining games: Titans (A), Knights (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)
Analysis: The Panthers are well and truly back on track for a shot at a ridiculous fifth straight title after beating the Tigers 36-2 for their seventh straight victory to keep their top four hopes alive. Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo returned with the Panthers now boasting a fully fit roster at the right time of the season. The fact NSW lost the Origin series is a bad sign for the rest of the NRL because Cleary’s desire to prove his critics wrong with a fifth straight premiership is now burning even brighter. Penrith have jumped the Broncos into fifth and face the Titans this week before a clash with the Knights, so a top four finish is not out of the question if the Warriors falter.
6. BRISBANE BRONCOS (26 points, +78)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 76.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 5.9%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: The Broncos all but blew their slim chances at a top four finish with a shock 22-20 loss to the Eels in Round 21. Ben Hunt is back from a foot injury with the Broncos finally unleashing their all star spine including Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds and they will only get better with the more games they play. Walsh has come a long way this season, but fell into some bad old habits in an error-prone display against Parramatta. However, along with the Panthers, the Broncos are one of the teams outside the top four that can go all the way this season. The Broncos face the struggling Rabbitohs next up, but their acid test will be two clashes with the Storm on the run home and a home final in week one is now in doubt.
7. CRONULLA SHARKS (26 points, 23)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing top eight: 85.7%
Chance of finishing top four: 6.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The Sharks have now won three on the trot after beating the Rabbitohs 14-12 and while it wasn’t pretty they got the job done. Nicho Hynes has finally found a purple patch of form and if the Sharks are to make the top eight and do anything come finals time, he needs his fingerprints all over the team’s performances. The Sharks face the Cowboys next, which is a good chance to improve their points differential in a tight race. However, a soft draw on the way home, including a bye means the Sharks are favoured to make it to the finals and potentially challenge for the top four while with Addin Fonua-Blake in the team, they have all the ingredients to make a splash once they get to the finals.
8. DOLPHINS (24 points, +169)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 77.6%
Chance of finishing top four: 5.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Dolphins moved back into the top eight on account of their bye and the Sea Eagles’ loss to the Bulldogs and now have their destiny in their own hands. Given their massive points differential advantage and relatively soft draw on the way home, they are on track for a maiden finals berth. Jake Averillo has stepped up in the absence of Kodi Nikorima, who was a big loss given his form. And given their brilliant and unpredictable attack led by Isaiya Katoa and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, the Dolphins are a team no one will want to play come finals time, home or away.
9. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, +22)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 47.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 1.6%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Roosters (H), Raiders (A), Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Analysis: Manly started strongly but were blown away by the Bulldogs 42-4 to knock them out of the top eight and with a tough draw on the run home it will be difficult to get back in. The Sea Eagles next face the Roosters and Raiders, so they will need to cause some more upsets if they want to feature in September footy. A strong points differential took a hit against the Bulldogs, which means they need some big wins in the last six weeks and unless they can go on a run they will struggle to make it, especially with just three home games left.
Crawley says Walsh needs to ‘grow up’ | 03:38
10. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (22 points, +4)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 17.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (A), Dolphins (A). Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Roosters have now lost two on the trot after their 34-30 defeat to the Storm and now face an uphill battle to make the finals. Sam Walker has returned at halfback and looms as their trump card as they battle for a finals spot over the remaining six games, but the halves have been a revolving door in the last three weeks, which has upset the side’s rhythm. Trent Robinson’s side face the Sea Eagles next and will have to play the Storm again and the Bulldogs in a tough run home. The Roosters have the class across the park to be a handful for any team in the finals, although their tough fixtures list might make it hard for them to squeak in — but top eight teams beware if they do.
11. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (19 points, -157)
Predicted finish: 12th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sharks (A), Eels (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye
Analysis: The Cowboys beat the Dragons 38-32 to keep their slim finals chances alive, but their horror defence continued and it could prove costly. The Cowboys have the worst points differential in the NRL, which will make it nearly impossible for them to make the finals. The Cowboys face the Sharks next up, but a soft draw on the way home could see them finish just outside the top eight. Tom Dearden has been a revelation at halfback since his positional switch and the Cowboys have some young guns of the future, but until they address their horror defence they won’t be a finals team and Todd Payten’s future beyond 2025 is uncertain at best.
Wighton out for 4 weeks as ban upheld | 00:28
12. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18 points, -64)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Raiders (H), Sharks (H), Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)
Analysis: The Dragons pushed the Cowboys all the way but ultimately fell short in their 38-32 loss with their defence deserting them in Townsville. Jaydn Su’A went down with a knee injury and it appears their injury toll, especially in the forwards is catching up with them over the course of a long season. The Dragons have competed in most games this year, but their defence has seen them lose a lot of tight ones and that is the difference between playing finals and not. A tough clash at home against the flying first placed Raiders is up next, before a tough run home that will make it difficult for the Dragons to win many more games this year. It will be interesting to see if Shane Flanagan gives some younger players a crack in the remaining games because their finals hopes are over and some members of their excellent NSW Cup side have been knocking on the door for a while.
13. WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -135)
Predicted finish: 14th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), bye, Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: The Tigers came crashing back to earth with a convincing 36-2 loss to the Panthers, which shows the gulf between them and the elite teams in the NRL. The Tigers are missing Jahream Bula’s class at fullback, while Latu Fainu is still finding his feet as an NRL halfback, but they need more from their senior players like Jarome Luai. The Tigers play the Bulldogs next up, but they still have a bye and play the Titans and Cowboys, so they can finish the season strongly and avoid a dreaded fourth wooden spoon. However, if they can’t get out of the bottom four it will be a disappointing season given the promise they showed early in the year and Benji Marshall needs every win he can get to ensure his future.
Papenhuyzen linked with BIG code switch | 04:12
14. PARRAMATTA EELS (18 points, -147)
Predicted finish: 13th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Storm (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)
Analysis: The Eels put in arguably their best performance of the season to upset the Broncos 22-20 on their home turf. Mitchell Moses returned with a bang and left Eels fans wondering what might have been had he not been injured for most of the season. Jason Ryles deserves plenty of credit for making some unpopular calls like dropping Dylan Brown, which have proved the right ones. They may not play finals this season, but they can still cause plenty of headaches over the next six weeks. A clash with the Storm next up will show how far this team has come after they were thrashed by Melbourne 56-18 in Round 1. And with clashes with the Cowboys, Rabbitohs and Knights to come they can break out of the bottom four.
15. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16 points, -116)
Predicted finish: 17th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: bye, Panthers (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)
Analysis: The Knights were right in the contest with the Raiders at 18-18, before fading to lose 44-18. Dane Gagai has done an admirable job filling it for Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe at the back, but without their captain the Knights don’t offer enough threats in attack. Reports coach Adam O’Brien will be sacked at the end of the year have only heaped pressure on the underperforming squad. Newcastle have the bye this week, before clashes against the Panthers and Cowboys and the spoon is still a realistic outcome for the Knights who have a tough run home.
16. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -149)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)
Analysis: The Titans finally showed some signs of life in a 24-16 upset win over the Warriors in Des Hasler’s 500th NRL game. In Jayden Cambell and AJ Brimson the Titans have two attacking dynamos, but their defence too often has let them down this season. The Titans have the second worst defence of any team in the NRL and their horror points differential is likely to mean they are favourites to win the wooden spoon. Hasler’s future at the club is all but over after the season, but the Titans still have plenty to play for. They need to convince injured skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui that it is worth playing the rest of his career at the club and the key to that is unearthing a halves pairing, which has been an issue for the club for years. Clashes with the Rabbitohs in Round 23 and the Tigers in the final round loom as their Grand Finals to avoid last place.
Braith exposes Ilias’ halves battle | 03:42
17. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (16 points, -151)
Predicted finish: 16th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Broncos (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs were again brave, but their 14-12 loss to the Sharks saw them move to the bottom of the ladder after the Titans’ win over the Warriors. The loss of Tevita Tatola to a shoulder injury added to Souths’ horror casualty ward, while Jack Wighton’s suspension and injuries to Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell will make it difficult for Souths to win another game. But they have plenty to play for, most notably avoiding a wooden spoon, which would be Wayne Bennett’s first in his decorated career. Souths have had a horror run with injuries this year, but they will be looking to finish the season strong to give them hope of turning things around in 2026. The clash with the Broncos will be a tall order, but Souths will back themselves against the Titans, Eels and Dragons before their final bye and their final round clash with the Roosters looms as their grand final, with a win potentially robbing the Chooks of a finals berth.
